Why Obama Will Win in 2012 by Daniel Bruno, Chartered Market Technician
WHY-OBAMA-WILL-WIN-IN-2008-2012 by Daniel Bruno This free e-book has been downloaded 150,000 times since October, 2007.
Also available at the Social Science Research Network http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1640137
Author: Daniel Bruno
Qualifications: Chartered Market Technician
Post Graduate Diploma, Financial Strategy, Oxford University
Abstract: Written in early 2007, Why Obama Will Win in 2008 & 2012 is a study of American business and political cycles since the great deflation of agricultural commodities following the Revolutionary War and Shay’s Rebellion of the 1790s. The author forecast-ed the great recession of 2008 and his book was the first to predict that Obama would defeat Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic Party nomination. It is also the first book to correctly forecast the presidential election outcome of 2008 and predict an Obama win for the election of 2012. The thesis is that electoral realignments follow on the heels of deflationary shocks (collapse in asset prices of stocks and real estate) and that these shocks occur in predictable cycles. Recessions, wars, stock market crashes and rotation of power within the two-party duopoly can be predicted years in advance to a degree of probability that is statistically significant.
Public opinion and polls are of no value in predicting election outcomes until seven days before the vote.
“Detailed and convincing – a solid scholarly study – the author draws from economic data and history, not opinion poll data, to support his case that economic data and a voter’s sense of well-being figure prominently in election outcomes. It’s a solid scholarly study.” – Sylvan Feldstein, Ph.D Columbia University, New York.
Radio interview Jesse Lee Peterson Interview 2009-05-26
The Village Voice:
Why the Democrats Will Win in 2008;
The Road to an Obama White House (2007)
Hardcover: 368 pages
Some guy no one has ever heard of comes out of nowhere to predict, with uncanny accuracy, that Barack Obama will win the presidency.
No, we’re not talking about Nate Silver. You’ve probably heard of Nate, a statistics nerd who founded a website (fivethirtyeight.com) that analyzed and critiqued national political polls while predicting Obama’s win to amazing accuracy. Nate became famous overnight, became a staple on TV talk shows, and landed a book deal.
But this isn’t about Nate Silver. We’re talking about the other guy who called the election for Obama 18 months before it happened, a guy who remains as obscure now as he did when he made that prediction — and he’s not very happy about it.
His name is Daniel Bruno Sanz. Back in early 2007, Bruno, an investment manager by profession, used something called econometrics — the use of economic data to explain trends or forecast outcomes — to conclude that Obama would win the presidential election.
At the time, Obama was 25 points down in the polls to our own Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. But in his book, Why the Democrats Will Win in 2008, Sanz argued that the public opinion polls don’t really matter.
When certain economic variables change drastically, he says, you can forecast whether the incumbent party will hold on to the presidency — especially when the sitting president is in his second term.
“What you get that sort of stew, the incumbent party will lose,” Sanz says.
But Bruno says he’s miffed because he’s not getting much respect for his prediction.
The cable news shows will take just about anyone, won’t they? But they haven’t been calling. Obama’s people don’t return his calls, even though he volunteered for the campaign after his book came out. And Clinton’s people? Forget about it.
“I took a big gamble, and spent a lot of money producing it, and in spite of the fact that I’m way ahead of these pundits, I don’t get any publicity,” he says. “The Democrats wouldn’t look at me, even the Obama people snubbed me.”
November 9, 2008
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