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The Great Crash of 2014 May be Ahead of Schedule. by Daniel Bruno, CMT

Posted on Wednesday, 23rd November 2011 @ 07:24 PM by Text Size A | A | A

FIBONACCI  RECESSION TIMETABLE THROUGH THE YEAR 2144

    PANICS, DEPRESSIONS AND INTERVALS OF 13, 21, 34, 55, 89,100,144 and 233 YEARS SINCE 1819

1819+21=1840      depression 1837-1842
1819+55=1874      crash 1873, long depression 1873-1894

1819+89=1908      crash 1907

1819+100=1919    crash 1919

1819+144=1963    recession 1962

1819+200=2019    recession

1819+233=2052    recession
1819+300=2119    recession

1837+21=1858      crash 1857

1837+34=1871      crash 1869, 1873, start of long depression

1837+55=1892      crash 1893

1837+89=1926      crash 1929
1837+100=1937    depression low 1937, 1929-1940 depression

1837+144=2002    crash 2000, market bottom 2003

1837+200=2037    crash, depression 2037

1837+233=2060    recession c. 2060
1873+21=1894     crash 1893

1873+34=1907     crash 1907

1873+55=1928     crash 1929

1873+89=1962     recession 

1873+100=1973   crash 1973

1873+144=2017   crash, depression 2014, recession 2018, 2019
1873+200=2073   crash, depression 2073

1873+233=2096   depression c. 2093-2095

1893+13=1906     crash 1907

1893+21=1914     recession

1893+34=1927     crash 1929

1893+55=1948     post WW II recession 1949
1893+89=1982     major stock market low 1982

1893+100=1993   recession bottom 1994

1893+144=2037   crash, depression 2037

1893+233=2126   recession

1907+13=1920     recession 1919
1907+21=1928     crash 1929

1907+55=1962     recession

1907+89=1996     recession bottom 1994

1907+100=2007   crash 2007, 2008 recession

1907+144=2051   2049 crash, recession
1929+13=1942     depression 1929-1942

1929+21=1959     recession 1949

1929+34=1963     recession 1962

1929+55=1984     major stock market bottom 1982

1929+89=2018     2014 crash, depression, 2018 recession
1929+100=2029   2028 crash, recession

1929+144=2073   crash, depression 2073

1929+233=2096   crash, recession 

1973+8=1981     major stock market bottom 1982

1973+13=1986    crash 1987
1973+21=1994    end of recession 1994

1973+34=2007    crash 2007

1973+55=2028    crash 2028, recession

1973+89=2062      recession 2062

1973+100=2073    crash, depression 2073

1973+144=2117    recession
1987+13=2000    crash 2000, recession 2001

1987+21=2008    crash 2007, recession 2008

1987+34=2021    crash, recession 2021

1987+55=2042    recession 2042

1987+89=2076    crash 2073, recession 2078
1987+100=2087  crash

1987+144=2131  crash

1994 (stealth bear market) +13=2007     crash 

1994+21=2015     crash, depression 2014

1994+55=2049     crash, depression 2049

1994+89=2083     recession 2081-2083
1994+144=2138   depression 2137

2000+8=2008       crash, 2007, recession 2008 

2000+13=2013     crash, depression 2014

2000+21=2021     crash, recession

2000+34=2034    crash, depression 2037
2000+55=2055    recession

2000+89=2089    recession 2087-2089

2000+100=2100  crash

2000+144=2144  crash

                          BRUNO/FIBONACCI TIMING  OF MARKET CORRECTIONS
1873-1837=37 * 1.618 = 59.9      1837+59.86=1896.8         1897 RECESSION

1873-1837=37 * 2.618 = 96.86.      1837+96.86=1933.86    1933 DEPRESSION
LOW

1873-1837=37 * 3.618 = 133.86      1873+133.86=2006.86     2007 CRASH
1873-1819=54  * 1.618 = 87.37    1819+87.37=1906.37       1907 CRASH

1873-1819=54 * 2.618 = 141.37    1819+141.37=1960.37     1962 RECESSION

1873-1819=54 * 3.618 = 195.37     1819+195.37 = 2014       2014 CRASH, DEPRESSION
1893-1837=56 * 1.618 = 90.6    1893+90.6 = 1983.6             MAJOR STOCK 

MARKET BOTTOM 1982

1893-1837 =56 * 2.618 = 146.6   1837+146.6 = 1983.6          MAJOR STOCK 

MARKET BOTTOM 1982
1893-1837 = 56 * 3.618 = 202.6   1837+202.6= 2039.6          MARKET LOW 

c. 2040-2042

1907-1819 = 88 * 1.618 = 142.4    1819+142.4= 1961.4        RECESSION 1962

1907-1819 = 88 * 2.618 = 230.4     1819+230.4= 2049.4       CRASH, RECESSION c. 2049
1929-1837 = 92 * 1.618 = 148.85    1837+148.85= 1985.85        CRASH 1987

1929-1837 = 92 * 2.618 = 240.85     1929+240.85= 2077.85      CRASH, DEPRESSION  2073

1987-1929 = 58 * 1.618 = 93.84        1929+93.84= 2022.8       CRASH  2021
1987-1929 = 58 * 2.618 = 151.84      1929+151.84= 2080.84   BEAR MARKET ENDS c. 2081-2083

2002 LOW - 1982 LOW = 20 * 1.618 = 32.36    1982+32.36= 2014.36  CRASH, DEPRESSION 2014

2002 LOW - 1982 LOW = 20 * 2.618 = 52.36     1982+52.36=2034.36   CRASH, DEPRESSION   c. 2036-2037
2002 LOW - 1982 LOW = 20 * 3.618 = 72.36      1982+72.36=2054.36   RECESSION c. 2057

At market turning points, mood is often extreme.  Take the pessimism at the start of Obama’s
term in January, 2009.  Who would have
guessed that Barack Obama’s first year in office would be the best for stock
market shareholders in 76 years.?  What’s
more, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which gained 70% in the past 12
months, has a lot of room to run if history is a guide.  Since the 1960’s, the average bull market has
lasted about 1000 trading days and the current run up has exhausted less than
27% of that time.
More than $8 trillion in U.S. government stimulus stabilized the
financial system and has restored $6 trillion to stock market valuations since
March 9, 2009.  Shares prices continue to
be buoyed by cheap money as the Federal Reserve keeps its target rate for
overnight loans between banks near zero and worker productivity climbed at the
fastest rate in seven years.  Inflation
remains contained, with consumer prices

excluding food and energy below 2 % . Home
prices increased seven straight months through December, 2009 according to the
Case-Shiller Index.

 

 

 

 
Bonds
U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds measured by Bank of America
Merrill Lynch indexes have gained 34%
since bottoming in October 2008, while

In 2010 the
U.S. has sold  $2.92 trillion in
debt, most of it to China and Japan,

to help finance a budget deficit estimated
at a record $1.6 trillion. Yields on 10-

year Treasury notes remain below 4 %,
compared with an average of 5% since 1995, theoretically indicating rising
confidence in the ability of the U.S. to pay back the money it owes.  In 1982 during the last recession, 30-year
yields were 14% and Paul Volcker, now 82 and whispering in Obama’s ear, was
chairman of the FED.

Price to Earnings Ratio is Low

 

The S&P 500 is valued at 14.7

times 2010 profit should earnings for
companies in the index

rise 27 percent in 2010. Wall Street firms
predict total operating

income at S&P 500 companies will rise
50 percent in the next two

years, the biggest increase since the
stealth bear market of 1994.

…But Caution is in Order
and Lookout for 2014
Stock increases may slow as equity managers run out of

money to spend, history shows. Cash has
dropped to 3.6 %

of U.S. mutual fund assets from 5.7 % in
January, 2009,

leaving them with $172 billion in the
quickest decline since

1991, Investment Company Institute data
show. The last time

stock managers held such a small proportion
was September 2007,

a month before the S&P 500 began a
nearly 61.8% freefall.   He fact that
stocks fell 57%, but did not reach 61.8%, is a hint that the bias remains
upward.   61.8  is no accident.  It’s a very important number for predicting
where stock prices will go and when.
If the current bull run lasts 1000 days
it will reach exhaustion after

April, 2013.   My research of market patterns and Fibonacci
relationships paints a grim picture after that time.  The odds of a Great Crash between May, 2013
and October, 2014 are high.

1994 BOND CRASH+21 = 2015

 

2000 CRASH +13 = 2013

 

1873 CRASH –1819 CRASH = 54 * 3.618 =
195.37     1819+195.37 = 2014

 

2002 LOW – 1982 LOW = 20 * 1.618 =
32.36    1982+32.36 = 2014.36

 

Copyright 2007-2010   Daniel Bruno, Chartered Market Technician

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