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The Great Crash of 2014.  As Predicted Using Cycles on August 7, 2007, by Daniel Bruno, Chartered Market Technician

Posted on Saturday, 1st June 2013 @ 10:48 AM by Text Size A | A | A

FIBONACCI RECESSION TIMETABLE THROUGH THE YEAR 2144

PANICS, DEPRESSIONS AND INTERVALS OF 13, 21, 34, 55, 89,100,144 and 233 YEARS SINCE 1819

1819+21=1840 depression 1837-1842

1819+55=1874 crash 1873, long depression 1873-1894

1819+89=1908 crash 1907

1819+100=1919 crash 1919

1819+144=1963 recession 1962

1819+200=2019 recession

1819+233=2052 recession

1819+300=2119 recession

1837+21=1858 crash 1857

1837+34=1871 crash 1869, 1873, start of long depression

1837+55=1892 crash 1893

1837+89=1926 crash 1929

1837+100=1937 depression low 1937, 1929-1940 depression

1837+144=2002 crash 2000, market bottom 2003

1837+200=2037 crash, depression 2037

1837+233=2060 recession c. 2060

1873+21=1894 crash 1893

1873+34=1907 crash 1907

1873+55=1928 crash 1929

1873+89=1962 recession

1873+100=1973 crash 1973

1873+144=2017 crash, depression 2014, recession 2018, 2019

1873+200=2073 crash, depression 2073

1873+233=2096 depression c. 2093-2095

1893+13=1906 crash 1907

1893+21=1914 recession

1893+34=1927 crash 1929

1893+55=1948 post WW II recession 1949

1893+89=1982 major stock market low 1982

1893+100=1993 recession bottom 1994

1893+144=2037 crash, depression 2037

1893+233=2126 recession

1907+13=1920 recession 1919

1907+21=1928 crash 1929

1907+55=1962 recession

1907+89=1996 recession bottom 1994

1907+100=2007 crash 2007, 2008 recession

1907+144=2051 2049 crash, recession

1929+13=1942 depression 1929-1942

1929+21=1959 recession 1949

1929+34=1963 recession 1962

1929+55=1984 major stock market bottom 1982

1929+89=2018 2014 crash, depression, 2018 recession

1929+100=2029 2028 crash, recession

1929+144=2073 crash, depression 2073

1929+233=2096 crash, recession

1973+8=1981 major stock market bottom 1982

1973+13=1986 crash 1987

1973+21=1994 end of recession 1994

1973+34=2007 crash 2007

1973+55=2028 crash 2028, recession

1973+89=2062 recession 2062

1973+100=2073 crash, depression 2073

1973+144=2117 recession

1987+13=2000 crash 2000, recession 2001

1987+21=2008 crash 2007, recession 2008

1987+34=2021 crash, recession 2021

1987+55=2042 recession 2042

1987+89=2076 crash 2073, recession 2078

1987+100=2087 crash

1987+144=2131 crash

1994 (stealth bear market) +13=2007 crash

1994+21=2015 crash, depression 2014

1994+55=2049 crash, depression 2049

1994+89=2083 recession 2081-2083

1994+144=2138 depression 2137

2000+8=2008 crash, 2007, recession 2008

2000+13=2013 crash, depression 2014

2000+21=2021 crash, recession

2000+34=2034 crash, depression 2037

2000+55=2055 recession

2000+89=2089 recession 2087-2089

2000+100=2100 crash

2000+144=2144 crash

BRUNO/FIBONACCI TIMING OF MARKET CORRECTIONS

1873-1837=37 * 1.618 = 59.9 1837+59.86=1896.8 1897 RECESSION

1873-1837=37 * 2.618 = 96.86. 1837+96.86=1933.86 1933 DEPRESSION
LOW

1873-1837=37 * 3.618 = 133.86 1873+133.86=2006.86 2007 CRASH

1873-1819=54 * 1.618 = 87.37 1819+87.37=1906.37 1907 CRASH

1873-1819=54 * 2.618 = 141.37 1819+141.37=1960.37 1962 RECESSION

1873-1819=54 * 3.618 = 195.37 1819+195.37 = 2014 2014 CRASH, DEPRESSION

1893-1837=56 * 1.618 = 90.6 1893+90.6 = 1983.6 MAJOR STOCK

MARKET BOTTOM 1982

1893-1837 =56 * 2.618 = 146.6 1837+146.6 = 1983.6 MAJOR STOCK

MARKET BOTTOM 1982

1893-1837 = 56 * 3.618 = 202.6 1837+202.6= 2039.6 MARKET LOW

c. 2040-2042

1907-1819 = 88 * 1.618 = 142.4 1819+142.4= 1961.4 RECESSION 1962

1907-1819 = 88 * 2.618 = 230.4 1819+230.4= 2049.4 CRASH, RECESSION c. 2049

1929-1837 = 92 * 1.618 = 148.85 1837+148.85= 1985.85 CRASH 1987

1929-1837 = 92 * 2.618 = 240.85 1929+240.85= 2077.85 CRASH, DEPRESSION 2073

1987-1929 = 58 * 1.618 = 93.84 1929+93.84= 2022.8 CRASH 2021

1987-1929 = 58 * 2.618 = 151.84 1929+151.84= 2080.84 BEAR MARKET ENDS c. 2081-2083

2002 LOW – 1982 LOW = 20 * 1.618 = 32.36 1982+32.36= 2014.36 CRASH, DEPRESSION 2014

2002 LOW – 1982 LOW = 20 * 2.618 = 52.36 1982+52.36=2034.36 CRASH, DEPRESSION c. 2036-2037

2002 LOW – 1982 LOW = 20 * 3.618 = 72.36 1982+72.36=2054.36 RECESSION c. 2057

There are a dozen significant economic indicators that are warning that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession.  The Dow may have soared past the 15,000 mark, but the economic fundamentals are telling an entirely different story.  If historical patterns hold up, the economy is heading for a very rocky stretch.  For example, the price of copper is called “Dr. Copper” by many economists because it so accurately forecasts the future direction of the U.S. economy.  And so far this year the price of copper is way down.  But that is not the only indicator that is worrying economists.  Home renovation spending has fallen dramatically, retail spending is crashing in a way not seen since the last recession, manufacturing activity and consumer confidence are both declining, and troubling economic data continues to come pouring out of Asia and Europe.  So why do U.S. stocks continue to skyrocket?  Will U.S. financial markets be able to continue to be divorced from reality?  Unfortunately, as we have seen so many times in the past, when stocks do catch up with reality they tend to do so very rapidly.  So you better put on your seatbelts because a crash is coming at some point.

But most average Americans are not that concerned with the performance of the stock market.  They just want to be able to go to work, pay the bills and provide for their families.  During the last recession, millions of Americans lost their jobs and millions of Americans lost their homes.  If we have another major recession, that will happen again.  Sadly, it appears that another major recession is quickly approaching.

The following are 12 recession indicators that are flashing red…

#1 The price of copper has traditionally been one of the very best indicators of the future performance of the U.S. economy.  The fact that it is down nearly 20 percent so far this year has many analysts extremely concerned

Copper’s downward trend foreshadows a stock market collapse, according to Societe Generale’s famously bearish strategist Albert Edwards, who said equity markets will riot “Japan-style.”

“Copper is acting exactly as it did when I wrote about the impotence of liquidity in the face of the (then imminent) 2007 recession. Once again it is giving us an early warning that liquidity will not save risk assets: time to get out of equities,” Edwards wrote in his latest research note, on Thursday.

#2 Home renovation spending has fallen back to depressingly-low 2010 levels.

#3 As Zero Hedge recently pointed out, U.S. retail spending is repeating a pattern that we have not seen since the last recession…

Retail sales of clothing is growing at the slowest pace since 2010; but while major store sales are about to drop negative YoY for the first time in over 3 years, the utter collapse in general merchandise sales is worse that at the peak of the last recession at -5%. It seems tough to see how a nation with an economy built on 70% consumption is not in a recessionary environment. And while this alone is a dismal signal for the discretionary upside of the US economy/consumer; as Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg points out real personal income net of transfer receipts plunged at a stunning 5.8% annual rate in Q1. The other seven times we have seen such a collapse, the economy was either in recession of just coming out of one.

#4 Manufacturing activity all over the country is showing signs of slowing down.  In fact, Chicago PMI has dipped below 50 (indicating contraction) for the first time since the last recession.

#5 In April, consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to a nine-month low

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment declined to 72.3 in April from 78.6 a month earlier. This month’s reading was lower than all 69 estimates in a Bloomberg survey that called for no change from the March number.

#6 NYSE margin debt peaked right before the recession that began in 2002, it peaked right before the financial crisis of 2008, and it is peaking again.

#7 The S&P 500 usually mirrors the performance of Chinese stocks very closely.  That is why it is so alarming that Chinese stocks peaked months ago.  Will the S&P 500 soon follow?

#8 The economic data coming out of the Chinese economy lately has been mostly terrible

For starters, China’s recent economic data, as massaged as it is to the upside, is downright awful. China’s PMI numbers were the worst in two years. Staffing levels in the Chinese service sector decreased for the first time since January 2009 (remember that year).

China’s LEI also shows no sign of recovery. If anything, it indicates China is heading towards an economic slowdown on par with that of 2008. And if you account for the rampant debt fueling China’s economy you could easily argue that China is posting 0% GDP growth today.

#9 Things just continue to get even worse over in Europe.  Unemployment in both Greece and Spain is now about 27 percent, and the unemployment rate in the eurozone as a whole has just set a brand new all-time record high.

#10 Crude inventories have soared to a record high as demand for energy continues to decline.  As I have written about previously, this is a clear sign that economic activity is slowing down.

#11 Casino spending is usually a strong indicator of the overall health of the U.S. economy.  That is why it is so noteworthy that casino spending is now back to levels that we have not seen since the last recession.

#12 The impact of the sequester cuts is starting to kick in.  According to the Congressional Budget Office, the sequester cuts will cost the U.S. economy about 750,000 jobs this year.

Do you have any other recession indicators that you would add to this list?

I invite you to share your thoughts by posting a comment below…

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