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Electoral Science: The Winner of the 2016 Election Will be a Republican

Posted on Sunday, 11th December 2016 @ 06:37 PM by Text Size A | A | A

Originally published at Washington’s Blog in April, 2016

 

by Daniel Bruno

 

Electoral Science: The Winner of the 2016 Election Will be a Republican

I was the first person in the world to proclaim that Barack Obama would be U.S. president from January, 2009 until January, 2017. No, I’m not an illuminati or a Bilderburger. I’m not on the Trilateral Commission or the Council on Foreign Relations and I don’t get invited to Davos. But in 2007 I told about forty CFR members that Obama would have to be president before they had decided on the matter. At the Democratic Party Convention in Denver, I gave Joe Biden my 2007 book

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1640137

and explained the basics. He later made indirect references to it in some of his talks.

When Obama confirmed he would run in the spring of 2007, I was intrigued and joined his New York strategy committee. Our task was to beat New York Senator Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Most people, especially establishment Blacks, dismissed us as fools. Even Al Sharpton was a skeptic. Shelby Steele, a mulatto at the Hoover Institution, wrote a nonsensical but successful book entitled “Why Obama Can’t Win.”

It took a lot of work and a number of personal visits by Obama to win hearts and minds in New York City. Obama’s campaign had a scientific approach, replete with charts and electoral history data sheets shared on google docs.

Like all of his volunteers, I was deceived by Obama’s rhetoric and thought we could achieve a soft coup of sorts, if only he were in power. So I started a serious inquiry to determine whether we really could reverse the nightmare bequethed to us by G.W. Bush.

The outcome of this inquiry was my book, “Why Obama Will Win in 2008 and 2012.”

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Por_qu%C3%A9_Obama_ganar%C3%A1_en_2008_y_en_2012

Inspired as a retort to Steele and published long before Obama/Biden had even been nominated by the Party, it boldly announced that Obama would beat McCain in 2008 as well as the Republican contender five years in the future in 2012.

To reach this conclusion, I built on the work of Allen Lichtman of American University and Ray C. Fair at Yale. Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House consists of a series of binary options, true or false, that have not failed to predict election outcomes since 1860.

When five or fewer of these options are false, the incumbent party remains in power. If six or more are false, the incumbent party loses the election. Polling data are not relevant to the 13 Keys. My book goes in to detail explaining the application of these keys to the election of 2008.

Ray C. Fair developed a theory of elections based on economic data:

https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2016/index2.htm

This econometric theory crunches economic growth, inflation and employment to predict which party will get the largest share of the two party share of the vote. It has a standard error of 2.5% The Fair Model has not faired as well as the 13 Keys, but is still useful, especially when used together with other techniques.

My contribution to electoral theory is the application of deflationary cycles. Commodity and stock prices alternate in waves marked by peaks and troughs of cycles.

These cycles repeat over and over and can be extrapolated into the future. This works especially well with interest rates. If you can predict interest rates you will have a clue about the strength of the dollar. If you know that, you will know how commodities and other currencies will trend in the future. Knowing where commodities will trend tells you about deflation and the deflation will predict the political upsets.

Interest rates depend largely upon fiscal policies and the party in power. Parties try to remain in power and stimulate the economy to benefit the incumbent during election cycles. This is the presidential cycle.

One of the startling realizations of electoral science is that candidate rhetoric and opinion polls don’t count. Had Obama run as a Republican in 2008, he would have lost. Had Clinton been nominated in 2008, she would have won. Had McCain run as a Democrat, he too would have won the election.

My 2007 book explained why Obama would win the party nomination, the election of 2008 and the election of 2012.

Neither Lichtman nor Fair could do this because they look only backwards. They look at past and present. My method looks at past, present and future.

When there is a deflationary trough, a big shake up occurs in politics. For example, FDR won because of the deflation of 1929-1930. Since Obama was the outlier and Clinton the establishment pick, and since the ruling party candidate (Bush) could not run for a third term, the probabilities greatly favored the outside man from the party out of power, i.e. Obama. Since the odds favored him in the general election, he would have to win the primaries to get there.

The deflation in asset values, the crash of Lehman Brothers and the election of Obama were consequences of the same force.

My theory was that there would have to be an electoral re-alignment: a new party system to mark a New Progressive Era. I envisioned a Cabinet full of reformers like Van Jones.

Obama would win in 2008, the cycle would bottom out and turn back up before 2012. This, plus the fact that he would be a sitting president running for re-election, guaranteed his win in 2012. Note that it made no difference who the Republican nominee would be.

As it turned out, I was right, except about the electoral realignment and New Progressive Era. Those were stillborn. Obama deceived us terribly. Some say it’s because he was afraid of becoming a JFK. That is probably true. But then, what was the point in becoming president?

Now, the forces I observed pushing for a New Progressive Era are personified by Bernie Sanders while the most despicable NeoCons want Billary Clinton. Neither will win. The reasons are that the Democrats have seven false Keys and the Fair Model is at 45.7 for the incumbent party. Whoever wins the Republican nomination will be the next president of the United States.

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